do Aster locomotives still hold in value overtime?

applegeekz · May 13, 2014

Hello,

I am very new to this hobby and still in the learning curve. As I dig more into the steam, I realized there are actually plenty of manufacturers out there produce live steam locomotives. And of course we all know Aster, and majority of us love Aster. I am just curious do Aster locomotives still hold in value overtime considering the competition we have today. Few years ago, I was told that if past experience is to be a guide for future then all Asters will hold in value overtime, perhaps may be well increase in value. Is this statement still hold true. If I were to buy a new Aster today will it gain in value? Of course, it is a very vague question because it is all depending on the level of run time and who build it. And not all Aster model get the same treat. But let just say that I run my locomotive occasionally and taking good care of it. And if it was a kit, it would be built by a highly regarded professional modeler.

If I am looking for a Aster Challenger, how much should I expect to pay?

Thanks

Nate

RP3 · May 13, 2014

Hi Nate. This is a tough question and the answers are not uniform. Some Asters have held their values well while others -- not so much. I think a lot has to do with the scarcity and desirability of the model. For instance, the Berkshire kits are still selling for around $7k which is about what they sold for new. Recently, a JNR C62-2 sold on eBay for over $8k which is a bit more than the new kit in the US. Older models like the Daylight have held value well while mikado prices can vary wildly. So my advice to you is to not make a purchase decision based on potential future value because it may not be there. Instead base your purchase on what you really like and want to run. And yes, the reputation and skill of the builder can add value, but the amount of run time and condition can take it away too.

Now, as to the Challengers. This model sold out quickly recently and there is little likelihood that you will be able to find one except for an isolated resale if you are extremely lucky. For this reason, you might have to pay more than the original kit price if you are fortunate enough to find one. Also, if you are just starting out, you would be better advised to look for a less complex Aster to start off with. Articulated are about as complicated as they get -- heavy and expensive too. Mikados and the Pennsy K4 for instance are more plentiful and much easier on your pocketbook. If foreign prototypes are of interest, there is a wide range to choose from and they occasionally pop up for sale here in the US. Some of the British ones but not all are of simpler design and those will usually be priced more attractively.

Good luck with your search,

Ross Schlabach

boilingwater · May 13, 2014

Nate,

Generally whether Aster or not---there are a lot of factors that go into a value evaluation but it largely comes down to what someone is willing to pay at a given time. The usuals, as you alluded, usually come into play: condition, rarity of the model, kit or factory build, desirability of the model against an actual pool of buyers at a given time.

That last factor makes any valuation interesting and highly variable. Based on that I'm not sure you should make purchasing decisions on perceived value of a model or anticipated value of model down the road. A model like the Challenger was done on actual orders so its population is small compared to other models. It is today a rare and sought after model that would likely recover or even exceed the original purchase price based on the factors we discussed. However, as it ages and isn't a hot new model and for whatever reason the pool of buyers goes down significantly, then you might find yourself not getting what you think it is worth when you are ready to sell. Of course, an upsurge in the live steam hobby can result in the price going up a great deal.

If you want something guaranteed, maybe US Treasuries but otherwise its a bit of crap shoot.....My advice,buy what you like and enjoy it and don't worry too much about value..

Sam

GNSteamer · May 14, 2014

I totally agree, Aster locomotives should only be purchased as an investment in fun and entertainment. On a different note, any air/oil cooled Porsche 356/911 have seen obscene increases in value in the last couple of years!!

Steve S. · May 14, 2014

A lot depends on the economy at the time of purchase. When people have more expendable cash on hand, the more they are willing to pay for their "Toys". And like anything else considered "Collectable", it's condition, condition, condition of the item at the time of sale. All I know about are the U.S. prototype Aster engines. Of those there are only a couple of models that you could sell in this present economy and make a substantial profit on, and that would only be if you bought it at it's introduction price.

Dr Rivet · May 14, 2014

Steve

Substantial profit? If you take into account the amount of inflation of the US dollar, I do not think the K4, NYC Hudson, Daylight, or Big Boy are actually bringing a big profit to the seller. If you IGNORE inflation, it appears that the seller might be making as much as 50%, possibly more. If you sell a Berkshire for what you paid new, you have actually lost a few hundred dollars.

My personal observation is that the Gauge One models that increase in value are the ones that were done in batches of 10 or less, not ones that were produced in quantities over 50. Even Fine Art Models locomotives and cars seldom realize much over their original prices, Gary Kohs' desires not withstanding.

It is the market, not the model.

Just my opinion.

Steve S. · May 14, 2014

Dr Rivet said:
Steve

Substantial profit? If you take into account the amount of inflation of the US dollar, I do not think the K4, NYC Hudson, Daylight, or Big Boy are actually bringing a big profit to the seller. If you IGNORE inflation, it appears that the seller might be making as much as 50%, possibly more. If you sell a Berkshire for what you paid new, you have actually lost a few hundred dollars.

My personal observation is that the Gauge One models that increase in value are the ones that were done in batches of 10 or less, not ones that were produced in quantities over 50. Even Fine Art Models locomotives and cars seldom realize much over their original prices, Gary Kohs' desires not withstanding.

It is the market, not the model.

Just my opinion.

Good added points Dr. Rivet. I agree.

steamtom1 · May 14, 2014

Then there is this one...

Aster built something like 2550 of these, and they originally went for something well under $1000, back in 1975. Nowdays they regularly bring in the high teens, close to, or slightly over $2000. They are very simple, most without even a pressure gauge, but they just might be the best runner Aster ever produced.

Dr Rivet · May 14, 2014

Tom brings up a perfect example above.

The Southern Schools class 4-4-0 was one of the first two locomotives produced by Aster in 1975. The original price was about $750 US. The production run was huge and it took Aster a long time to sell off the inventory.

In 1979 they produced the Southern King Arthur class 4-6-0 but limited the production to only 300 pieces. It was still a moderately priced locomotive.

Today a Schools in good condition typically fetches $1800-$2100 while the Arthur, being much less common [about 1 to 8 or 9] will bring $2900-$3500.

If you account for inflation over 35 to 40 years, the market price is about even for the Schools although 10 years ago they were in the $2200-$2500 range.

Just the market doing its thing.

boilingwater · May 15, 2014

Nate,
I guess if you mean recovering the original dollar cost of the engine as your definition of value then Tom and Jim's example above might make you feel better....but if you talking about the value of those same dollars over that time horizon they are talking about then maybe not so much...As I alluded to above, value should be probably be thought of in terms of how much enjoyment you derive from those dollars...Clearly, in those terms, our friends above have been rewarded handsomely...

GaugeOneLines · May 15, 2014

Twenty years ago it was nothing to double your money on an Aster, but then they were the only ones in the business of making standard gauge live steam near scale models, and there might be two new models a year. Times have changed and the market is now flooded with new models from other manufacturers and Aster put out N American models more often than in the '80s. On top of that, all the old farts like us who bought these models back then are on fixed pesions or worse, falling off our perches, so the market is now being flooded with used engines. Your live steamer is now becomming more like the car in your driveway, so enjoy it for what it is rather than eyeing the $ signs......if that's your reason for being in garden railway live steam then get out now before you get your fingers burned, but if getting them burnt on a hot regulator is OK with you then welcome to the fold old son!
David M-K
Ottawa

dougiel · May 15, 2014

The picture below is ( I hope ! ) of the first run of an Aster LNER Flying Scotsman. This took part last Tuesday the 13th of May 2014. This model was first on sale in 2002, twelve years ago for £4350. I was lucky enough to purchase this unfired model from a fellow G1 member for £4000.

I also purchased a new still in its tissue paper in its box BR 9f 2-10-0 for £4500. This was some £750 over its original 2007 price.

Money wise some you win, some you loose. Enjoyement wise its a win win situation. Seeing The Scotsman pull away on that first run at a very smooth twenty miles an hour or so was all the satisfaction I wanted.

DougieL

Kovacjr · May 15, 2014

I have a unbuilt Berkshire kit and its still valued at the same price as new.

We mostly buy as a hobby and buy what we like and will run. I would not buy something and expect in 10 years that I will make money on it. If you have just a 10-20% less resale from new you are doing well when you do sell something. Sometimes you may break even too. All depends on the size of the run and how desirable the item is.

boilingwater · May 15, 2014

Jay,

Is it really? Again, when you have a real buyer that actually puts money in your hand. then you can say that....I've seen several Berks that were in perfect condition that did not return what was paid by the seller.

In general, however, your 10-20% depreciation may be a good guideline for Nate and others but again the current market and how your expose your item to market will validate that or not....

Sam

Bob in Mich · May 15, 2014

Here is some Aster's going up for Auction,You can see for Your self what the Market is Today.Check it out
Hello!

I'd like to personally invite you to The Glenn Reid Museum Collection "Preview Gala," on May 16. This museum is truly the American Dream on Display! For those of you who have never visited, the contents consist of more than 3000 hand-made, working models that represent the history of the Industrial Revolution.

Visit our website at www.reidff.org to learn more about the museum collection, The Reid Family Foundation, and all the upcoming events.

This entire collection will be sold to preserve the future of The Reid Family Foundation. To see the sale catalog and a video of the collection, visit www.ha.com/5181.

Some of you have already received an invitation in the mail or by email to the "Preview Gala." In case you did not, I have attached one to this email. Please RSVP. Details included on the invitation.

I would like to encourage you to attend this special evening at our museum. This will be one of the very last days you will have a chance to see the collection all together before it is auctioned on May 28. We will have model demonstrations, a lecture by Nick Dawes, strolling appetizers and cocktails.

Even if you are not interested in bidding on anything in the auction, you are still welcome to enjoy the collection by attending the "Preview Gala." Just make sure you RSVP.

Or, you can attend our "Appraisal Event" on May 15-17. Heritage Auction specialists will give free, verbal appraisals and identification of up to 2 of your treasures. This is a free, public event. Times and additional information can be found on our website at www.reidff.org.

Remember, all proceeds from the sale will benefit The Reid Family Foundation which is dedicated to local youth development.

Please consider spreading the word about our events and auction. The future of our foundation and my dad's legacy is dependent on the success of the sale of his collection.

With Great Appreciation,
--

Sheri Reid Grant
Executive Director
Reid Family Foundation
(248)766-3738 cell

Reg Stocking · May 15, 2014

Over fifty years ago I had a friend and mentor who custom-built O-scale models. All too frequently a prospective client would, upon being quoted a substantial sum for a T&P Texas or a streamlined NYC J-3 which wasn't available in Japanese brass, nervously ask what he could get for it used. Jack's answer was that, if you want an investment, go see a broker or realtor. If you want a locomotive, I'm your man. This advice is still good.

Bob in Mich · May 15, 2014

Here is the rest of the Live Steam

pogsteam · May 15, 2014

I want to buy the Big Boy in the auction. Estimate is $5-7K. Any guesses on what it will go for? More than $7k I'm sure.

artgibson · May 15, 2014

pogsteam said:
I want to buy the Big Boy in the auction. Estimate is $5-7K. Any guesses on what it will go for? More than $7k I'm sure.

You would be extremely lucky if you got it for less than 10k, would be my guess. Pristine,unused I am thinking maybe 15k to 20k.

I looked at the auction site. Buyer beware, looks like a buyer's premium on these items could be as high s 25% ,if I am reading their agreement correctly.

Chris Scott · May 16, 2014

What is it worth? Well with money and value being relative things let’s do some figuring.

Using a couple of the examples given above and adjusting for inflation using the CPI (Consumer Price Index) I used the following calculator verifying the results with another calculator.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Calculators/Inflation_Rate_Calculator.asp

Southern Schools class 4-4-0
1975 … $750
1995 … $2,124
2014 … $3,294

Estimated value today
2014 … Jim; … $1,800-$2,100
Jim’s loco, you could say, is worth a lot less than what he paid for it.

Southern King Arthur class 4-6-0. I tried two looks at the Arthur.
1979 … $1,012 ($750 CPI adj.)
2004 … $2,656
2014 … $3,323

1979 … est. $1,250
2004 … $3,252
2014 … $4,068

Estimated value today;
2004 … Dr Rivet … $2,900-$3,500 “10 years ago”
So if Arthur cost about $1,000 in 1979, Jim’s estimate looks pretty close. If it cost any more, well, not so much.

If you just look at Jim’s estimate for 2004 to 2014 adjusted for inflation that would be;
Dr Rivet’s 2004 estimate CPI adjusted
2014 … $3,627 - $4,378 would be what you would have to sell it for today to just get back what you paid for it.

Of course the other way of looking at things is that a dollar is a dollar is a dollar. If you paid $750 for a loco in ’75 and you sell it today for $1,800, Good Grief, that’s nearly 2 ½ time the price you paid for it. WOW! Fairly meaningless but unexamined sounds pretty good.

What can make this, “what’s it worth?” thing somewhat painful… Let’s say you invested that $750 in the S&P 500 Index via and Index Mutual Fund, the total return, with Div. and Int. reinvested, would be worth about $14,903.

I think the conclusion is;
If you want to have fun buy a train.
If you want an investment, “ buy land they aren’t making any more,” Will Rogers.
Do not confuse fun and investments; you’ll never get a decent return on either.

All that aside. I, and I think a heck of a lot of us, have gone through the exact, exact same thought process of self doubt. Ok, maybe not Dr Rivet he’s the most confident gentleman I know. ;-))

Goes something like… Steam trains look like fun. What I like costs a lot of money. What if it turns out I don’t like steam trains as much as I thought? Can I get my money back (most or maybe more?) if , IF I buy the RIGHT locomotive? Often the subtext is; Can I tell my wife, “it’s an investment? That’s what the guys been in this for all their lives say.” So she won’t divorce me, or worse, for spending what seems like an absurd amount of money for a toy train?

I think most of us have reached similar conclusions; If I don’t buy what I really want I’ll never be happy.
Buy something small to get your feet wet. Then move on to that golden locomotive on a hill.

Why an investment theory of trains doesn't work;
No one has a crystal ballot see the future. If they say they do run like ****.
The past is no guarantor of the future.
Think of all the people who bought gold at $1600+ an ounce because everyone said it was always go higher. Sound advice.

If you go for fun as an investment you will always have protecting your investment in the back of your mind. You will never really have the joy of unmitigated orgasmic just plain child like fun.

Now the advice passed onto me by a very old and wise sage of the male species. If you want to buy something expensive for yourself, first get your wife to buy herself, or buy her an expensive something. Wait a reasonable amount of time they buy your expensive locomotive. You will be called out as a conniving sob but just say; of course I did it so I could buy my locomotive. We each should special things we really want. We deserve it.

Last, only buy what you like and makes you happy never what someone else likes.

do Aster locomotives still hold in value overtime?

applegeekz

RP3

boilingwater

GNSteamer

Steve S.

Dr Rivet

Steve S.

steamtom1

Dr Rivet

boilingwater

GaugeOneLines

dougiel

Kovacjr

boilingwater

Bob in Mich

Reg Stocking

Bob in Mich

pogsteam

artgibson

Chris Scott

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