| Author | Messages | |
steam8hack
Brakeman
Posts:48
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 | | 02/22/2008 8:19 AM |
| A PRR J1a or Texas type locomotive? I'm not sure this country or other countries are ready for something related to Texas for a few years. Ok, off the reservation, cheap shot - but it was so easy - dont shoot!
I heard from a friend who got to Diamondhead the same thing Ross said Fuji was pretty definite bigger is better for sales. And he said Fuji said Aster gives preference first to its local customers and what is popular with them. He said Fuji said a Challenger loco was a big favorite US loco with Japan customers. They perceive it as a big reason the US beat Japan in WWII because it was the big hauler of war materials to the West coast for the war in the Pacific. Like my friend said it sounds crazy but the Japanese respect power. Challenger is also popular in the US (Europe?). But not cheap.
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| John Allman
1st Class Member
Brakeman
Posts:53
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| | 02/22/2008 9:19 AM |
| As Ross (RP3) would tell you, I pleaded with Hans and Fuji to make a Challenger. I would buy one given the opportunity. But they will cost As much as an Allegheny. I hope it happens, but it seems unlikely. I think I remember Hans would have commissioned the UP FEF a few years ago if the licensing fees weren't exorbitant. So maybe that will happen sooner or later. I definitely recall hearing that one thing absolutely required is the technical drawings. So for my two cents, I think you will only see new locomotives where the drawings are available. That probably limits what can be made more than any other single factor.
Speculating is fun, but in the end fruitless. No one even has an S-2 yet. Im sure we will hear more in the next 6 months to a year.
John | | | |
| Dr Rivet
1st Class Member
Purcellville, VA
Foreman
Posts:117
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| | 02/22/2008 1:21 PM |
| John
If you want the UP Challenger (gee, which version) please send Hans a complete set of drawings (yes, they are available), plus $100,000 of your children's future inheritance, plus a letter of credit from your favorite financial institution good for an additional $ 150,000. You are now in a position to PLEAD with Hans to negotiate with Aster to build said locomotive. It is a nice engine, but a $25,000 KIT is a bit beyond even my (seemingly) unlimited train budget. I know of your personal pain and suffering in the acquisition of the H-8, so you MIGHT have an uphill battle.
I will stick with my (apparently not universally shared) prognostication of the FEF-3. Remember, Tim Iliyniski (sp?) of Cincinnati Garden Railway Company commisioned Samhongsa to produce both the FEF-3 and the N&W J in 1:32 electric in the early 1990s. They cost about $5,000 when introduced, and it was a HARD sell. At the National Garden Railway Convention in 1991 (in Cincinnati) they sold raffle tickets at $25 each for a N&W J to raise money for charity; I understand they barley broke even because so few folks (back then) had any interest in a modern standard gauge locomotive. Even i was reluctant to part withthe money for a chance on it.
So, for those who desperately want a particular model and are willing to part with the money, I suggest you contact Gordon Watson (Argyle Locomotive Works), or one of the many British bespoke builders, negotiate a price, and send them a full set of plans. I woulld guess a reasonable cost estimate can be achieved by adding up the number of axles on both the locomotive and tender, and multiplying by between $875 and $1000. SO.... a PRR J1 (8 axles on the loco, 8 axles on the long tender, total 16) would be in the range of $ 14,000 and $16,000. Using this formula, buying a C&O T-1 with its 6 axle tender would save you between $ 1750 and $2000. I think it would only lower the price $1,000.
Gordon, if you are monitoring this thread, let us know if this kind of math gets a person "in the ball park" with a cost estimate for a custom US outline locomotive.
Remember, if it is a built up loco, the designer doesn't have to engineer an locomotive that can be built from a kit by someone who is presumed to have only moderate model engineering skills and has only basic tools. This is one major difference between a Barratt Engineering (UK) kit and an Aster. The Barratt kits are well designed and build into beautiful well runing locos, but for most of their products, the expectation of the builder's skill level is somewhat beyond that of a novice. Too bad they are all 10mm/ft scale (NIT NIT NIT).
Regarding the (Dr Rivet) formula, Scott's request for a UP "Big Blow" GTEL (Gas Turbine ELectric) would be ( 6 axles on the lead unit, 6 axles on the turbine, and 6 axles on the oil tender) would lead to 18 x 875 = $15,750 to 18 x 1000 = $18,000. Of course that DID NOT assume a $6,000 Wren turbine; the price is now $ 21,750 to $ 24,000. That is pretty close to my "mud throw" estimate of $25,000 I offered up earlier, which I based on the cost of Ajin making the brass shells in 1:32.
If you want to have a heart attack, lets look at UP's experimental #80/80B (later #8080/8080B) gas turbine fired with pulverized coal. It used an Alco PA cab with its 2000hp diesel as the contol unit (6 axles), a retired GN electric chassis for the turbine (2-D+D-2, 10 axles), and a Centipede tender (7 axles). Let's see; 6+10+7=23. SO we get a range of $20,125 to $23,000. Looks like the price of an Aster Challenger kit to me.
More of my highly biased, somewhat baseless and uninformed guessing about what it costs if you want to play in "high stakes" locomotive acquisition.
Cheers
Jim
BTW Ryan, is Charles out sick. I figured I would have been shot in the leg by now. Scott, do you have an answer abouth the O scale wada GTELs
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Jim Stapleton
SA# 2.71828
IE&W Railway | |
| John Allman
1st Class Member
Brakeman
Posts:53
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| | 02/22/2008 1:45 PM |
| Jim - we actually agree! Its not going to be #3985, but its partner the FEF. And I even like the sporty yellow stripe. All I told Hans was I would buy one (and I meant it) - but he probably knows I will buy what he makes anyway. (now I have four cents invested in the next Aster)
As to my Allegheny, I hope to test it again this weekend. Perhaps. I certainly have spent a huge amount of time building it and am ready to be finished!.... I am glad I own it BUT it has taken my quite a bit longer than I expected. I look forward to runing it with your CF.
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| scottemcdonald
Brakeman
Posts:44
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| | 02/22/2008 2:39 PM |
| Scott, do you have an answer abouth the O scale wada GTELs
I have no idea. They were produced for the Japanese market. You know, the country where innovation and new ideas are rewarded. -- Scott | | | |
| Charles
1st Class Member
Conductor
Posts:636
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| | 02/22/2008 3:49 PM |
|
If I had only be there in 1991 I would of purchase quite a few of the N & W J tickets and by now converted it to live steam! As I recalled that production model was a high end piece for the sparkies market during that time line requiring a much larger trackage than the average person had in their back yard. Combine that with the fact that available rolling stock was very expensive, it's no wonder sales were low: economics not interest would have been the limiting factor. Similiar to most regional interest of railroads(UP, SP, PRR, NYC N&W,etc), i am sure that there are 100-150 buyers along with many outside the US for a "J."
With that said, hands down the FEF is a winner and will be a big seller. I am sure, if this is the next model Hans with be wise (as he has done in the past) not to show his cards until the S2 has made the profit level he needs to be successful.
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Happy Trails on the Rails
Offering services to enhance your steam locomotive
Charles
SA #614
http://cebednarik.googlepages.com/home | |
| tacfoley
1st Class Member
Conductor
Posts:574
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| | 02/22/2008 4:30 PM |
| For those of you who really can't wait - here is a short list of bespoke builders in the UK whose models are true museum pieces that just happen to work perfectly:-
Dave Walker
Kings Road Lock house
Foxholes Lane
Altofts
WF6 2PE
UK
cromforddesigns@tiscali.co.uk
His workmanship is astounding - the last loco I saw was a G1 'Britannia', in electric - priced around £5500.
Mike Danby
48 Acaster Drive
Garforth
Leeds
LS25 2BQ
mikedanby3379@aol.com
Again, electric.
Keith Cousins
131 Redlands Drive
Milton Keynes
MK5 8BP
0044-1908-230445
Steam kits of Paul Forsyth designs, but certainly worth asking.
Notwithstanding the vast fortunes of most here, I am of the opinion that a live-steam batch-built G1 Challenger built to drawings over here in UK will easily hit $30K - maybe even $40K.
But then, as I am being reminded every time I look at this thread, it's only money, eh? 
tac
www.ovgrs.org
G1MRA Member #3641
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| Dr Rivet
1st Class Member
Purcellville, VA
Foreman
Posts:117
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| | 02/22/2008 7:36 PM |
| Tac
Thanks for that short list. IT IS A KEEPER (for when I win a lottery, any lottery). Is there also a David Baker in the UK who is a custom loco builder, or am I confusing the name with someone else?
Regards
Jim
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Jim Stapleton
SA# 2.71828
IE&W Railway | |
| Kovacjr
1st Class Member
Lakewood NJ
Foreman
Posts:372
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| | 02/22/2008 8:02 PM |
| Reguarding a custom built loco I spoke to Gordon Watson abbout a 1:32 Pacific in CNJ and he said 7,500 is the ball park for a short run of about 5 pcs and that was if he would build it which he will not since he had stopped taking any furute order for the next 3 years until he is caught up. Then he will possible do some more work or just work on his own locomotives...
He did recommend Graham Dixon as another builder that would be willing to take on a custom order. His prices are unknown at this time.
I too would like to see a new roadname as Accucraft is beating SP to death now even more with narrow gauge SP. As for what they build next, Hans mentioned that they are also considering a few european engines too along with a couple US....Supposedly he will be asking around with this list or however he plans to do it but he said there will be a poll or survey of the next engine after the S2 is released. Maybe its packed in the S2 box???
If they some out with an appealing loco from the east coast I may have to start the SG bug going. As long as it ran in the NJ lines of course. | |
Jason Kovac
Lakewood, NJ | |
| Dr Rivet
1st Class Member
Purcellville, VA
Foreman
Posts:117
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| | 02/22/2008 8:23 PM |
| Jason
Let me test my (finger in my ear equation) cost estimator. Gordon said $7500 for five units built at once. My numbers presuppose a one-off build. Let us be consevative and add 15% because there is only one and not five. Remeember, the design time is a sunk cost, machining set up is the same for one part as five parts, etc.
So, for a 4-6-2 with tender with 2 axle trucks: 6 axles on the engine, 4 on the tender; total 10 axles.
Your 5 unit price $7500 x 1.15 for a one-off = $8625 divide by 10 axles = $862.50 per axle.
I admit this is below my guess of $875, but if my fixed cost % is too low, we are right up in my guesstimate.
So obviously the answer is to get someone to commit to a build of about 10 locos and front about 50% up front as a minimum.
The only thing about it is that custom builders usually tire of doing very many of any one thing. It gets very tedious after a while. Just ask David Bailey about his coal fired K-27 project. I think he burned out pretty fast. I am not sure many of us would even want to build 10 Hartford stock cars, let alone 10 of the same steam locomotive.
Cheers
Jim
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Jim Stapleton
SA# 2.71828
IE&W Railway | |
| Chris Scott
1st Class Member
Sonoma, CA
Foreman
Posts:137
Send Message
| | 02/23/2008 12:21 AM |
| Posted By Dr Rivet on 02/22/2008 8:23 PM
Jason
Let me test my (finger in my ear equation) cost estimator. Gordon said $7500 for five units built at once. My numbers presuppose a one-off build. Let us be consevative and add 15% because there is only one and not five. Remeember, the design time is a sunk cost, machining set up is the same for one part as five parts, etc.
So, for a 4-6-2 with tender with 2 axle trucks: 6 axles on the engine, 4 on the tender; total 10 axles.
Your 5 unit price $7500 x 1.15 for a one-off = $8625 divide by 10 axles = $862.50 per axle.
I admit this is below my guess of $875, but if my fixed cost % is too low, we are right up in my guesstimate.
So obviously the answer is to get someone to commit to a build of about 10 locos and front about 50% up front as a minimum.
The only thing about it is that custom builders usually tire of doing very many of any one thing. It gets very tedious after a while. Just ask David Bailey about his coal fired K-27 project. I think he burned out pretty fast. I am not sure many of us would even want to build 10 Hartford stock cars, let alone 10 of the same steam locomotive.
Cheers
Jim
Jim:
Working with your formula numbers how would that fit an Aster Challenger (I like that prospect)? The Aster remake of the AD-60 Garratt; 4-8-4 - 4-8-4, $12K kit; 16 axles = $750/axle. By your est. ($875/axle) the Garratt would cost, $14K. At Diamondhead there was talk from the old timers that the original AD-60 Garratt cost more than the remake at $12K for the kit, and the first run was ~100 the remake 30 ???
Comparing cost of an Aster Allegheny, 17 axles, a Challenger 17 axles, @$750/per = $12,750. @$875 = $14,875. But the Aster AD-60 Garratt is a kit at $750/axle and your example of $875/axle is for a RTR one-off. Aster would make 120 or 200 Challengers (per the 2 Allegheny run quantities), so seems Aster could make money on a Challenger at $12K-$14K for the kit if they are with the Garratt.
I was at DH and overheard Fuji's comments on bigger is better and a Challenger's popularity with local customers. I got the impression It could come sooner rather than later.
Or how would you rework your formula and numbers for a Challenger?
Just throwing in my SWAG. 
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| tony23
Foreman
Posts:116
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| | 02/23/2008 3:36 AM |
| I have been reading this with interest what I find strange is are there no engineers in the States that scatch build to order I keep seeing mentioned UK builders? The builders Tac mentioned are very good but only one (Keith Cousins) will build steam.
Graham Dixon was mentioned who I know well he has closed his books for the past few years and has orders for the next 4 years I have a friend who picks a new loco up from him every year and places another order on pickup. His last loco (last month) was a Brittannia it's cost £7000 so an American loco would probably be £10,000 plus.
I could name at leat six other steam builders here who build to order but hey if you guys start ordering stuff us lucky Brits will have to wait  .
Tony
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| Dr Rivet
1st Class Member
Purcellville, VA
Foreman
Posts:117
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| | 02/23/2008 6:54 AM |
| Chris
First, one has to assume my high number (it is an Aster, remember) of $1,000 per axle. That gets us to $17,000. That is creeping up on the original H-8 kit price of $18,500.
Second, an articulated's complexity with more cylinders, much larger boiler, etc, will add cost, and the sunk cost for the design will be greater (use of modern CAD systems not withstanding).
Third, Aster is designing a kit that is supposed to be able to be assembled by someone with only a moderate level of skill, so much more thought has to go into how to make something that can meet that requirement. Add 25% ; now $21,250
Fouth, Aster has name recognition, and can (and does) inflate the price based on that alone. Compare a Chevy or GMC Suburban to a Cadillac Escalade. Some people will buy it because of the name alone, but it does not always work. If it did, Hans would have an empty warehouse. Add 10%; now $23,375 GETTING PRETTY CLOSE
Compare the Aster Daylight with the Accucraft 14 axles ; $9000(?) / 14 = $643 vs $4500/14 = $321.
Remember, I dreamed these numbers up as a way to estimate an approximate cost for a ONE OFF from a custom builder, so one could plan their heart attack in advance. It serves no other purpose. It does not account for currency exchange issues, used locomotives, mass produced models (more than 20 units), or the phase of the moon.
I don't think the math can be refined because of the philosphies of the builders, the work load they want to take on, and a host of other intangibles. IT IS JUST A WAG generator, that may get you within 10% to 20% for a locomotive.
As I said in the beginning, it is also very unscientific; it was removed from one of my (upper) orifices.
Sorry I have been dragging this thread in an unintended direction.
Cheers
Jim
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Jim Stapleton
SA# 2.71828
IE&W Railway | |
| GaugeOneLines
Ottawa Canada
Brakeman
Posts:40
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| | 02/23/2008 7:48 AM |
| Wearing my hat as an Accucraft and Aster Dealer (24 years for Aster) it seems that apart from Andrew, Ross and Jim, the vast majority have little grasp of the reality of the manufacturing of live steam 1:32 engines. There is little to add to what you three say, and Ross you are so dead-on with your view of the economy, I mentioned it a couple of months ago and the Moderator yanked my post as being inflammatory!
As regards re-runs of Aster, forget it, they don't. The BigBoy and Garratt are both cases of using up dead stock of spares for mantle queens, they're not re-runs. As regards reruns of Hudson and K4s, John Gummo ended up selling them at Fire Sale prices, I bought 3 Hudsons and 2 K4s for $1500 each in 1985!
As regards what Hans will chose after the S2, for crying out loud the S2 is still 3 months away! Buy the S2 and Hans will THEN have the incentive to chose something for 2010/11 which is going to sell. By the by, that high pitched sound you can hear is the sound of Hans pulling his hair out because of the BS that some folk post here.
Finally, all this talk is of engines, engines engines. Surely there's a larger market out there for mass-produced rolling stock in 1:32 and I don't mean $600 coaches but something about half that. Accucraft seem on the right track with their 40' AAR boxcars. Any thoughts?
David M-K
Ottawa | | | |
| CapeCodSteam
1st Class Member
South Dennis, MA
Foreman
Posts:197
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| | 02/23/2008 7:56 AM |
| Doc Rivet,
1st of all, thank you for youe explinations on costing out a new locomotive. I understand there is some guestimations involved, yet you seemed pretty right on. Though for someone only really jumping in since last year, it sheds a lot of light on everything I missed leading up to the crowning of GN-S2 as Miss Aster/US Loco 2008.
I missed the local pagents, which many locos never got a chance. Moving up to the regionals, where 10 finalists were scrutinized, interviewed and had to pass the tallent portion of the pagent. Then the final test, the swim suit compition. And I gotta say, I'm really digging the S2 in that green one piece. Can't wait for the Aster US Pagent for 2010. in the meantime, isn't there an Aster/EUR pagent coming up?
regarding the Accucraft/Aster, GM/Cadillac comparision... I'm hoping that Accucraft has plans to release theie new 1:32 Flying Scotsman Sparkie in live steam.
My 2c | |
Kent SA# 4468
LNER Mallard | |
| Bob Pope
1st Class Member
Tallahassee, FL
Brakeman
Posts:56
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| | 02/23/2008 8:02 AM |
| Jim,
I think your analysis is an interesting addition to this thread. At first blush, the prices of our model trains seem exorbitant. But when you start taking all the factors into account it starts to make sense.
I remember my jaw dropping when I saw prices in the $600-$900 range for passenger car rolling stock. Then I made four passenger cars from scratch out of aluminum and fiberglass. Suddenly, those prices seemed to be a bargain when you figure in the cost of the materials, and the time to design, fabricate, paint, and decal the cars.
Bob
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| Pete Thornton
1st Class Member
Annapolis, MD
Conductor
Posts:626
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| | 02/23/2008 9:01 AM |
| Posted By GaugeOneLines on 02/23/2008 7:48 AM
Finally, all this talk is of engines, engines engines. Surely there's a larger market out there for mass-produced rolling stock in 1:32 and I don't mean $600 coaches but something about half that. Accucraft seem on the right track with their 40' AAR boxcars. Any thoughts?
David M-K
Ottawa
Fascinating stuff. And yes - those guys with $10,000 locos need something to pull. I saw a lot of PFE reefers behind the new AC-12s at Cabin Fever. MDC sold a lot of hoppers and cabooses when they made a 1/32 line. Accucraft's new 40' boxcar will undoubtedly be seen in multiples behind the Aster or Accu locos - $604 for a 6-car set seems just about right - and you get a box to carry them in!
I would suggest that there is also a market for passenger equipment. Aristocraft sells plenty of heavyweight coaches to the owners of K4s and the like - despite being 1/29th, they are a bit undersized, I'm told, so they look good. Accucraft's latest J&S coach with the removable sides means they can make a coach or combine without reworking everything. Surely a 1/32 coach could be designed with a couple of different side options - in fact, why not sell the sides separate from the body+underframe. The UK distributor for Accucraft is pressing them to bring out coaches that match the latest 1/32nd Flying Scotsman (now, when will we see that in live steam.)
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| GaugeOneLines
Ottawa Canada
Brakeman
Posts:40
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| | 02/23/2008 9:43 AM |
| The UK distributor for Accucraft is pressing them to bring out coaches that match the latest 1/32nd Flying Scotsman (now, when will we see that in live steam.)
The coaches I believe are on hold as 'another company' is said to be producing BR Mk1 coaches in brass at an 'affordable' price, about GBP250 each. As regards a live steam Accucraft Flying Scotsman....forget it, aintgoingtohappen.com/ Turning an engine designed for electric into a live steamer is the wrong way to go about it, make it live steam then make electric versions of that is the logical way and Accucraft know it. I think they also now understand that making engines that Aster already have produced only invites comparison, and at half the price of the original they come off second best.....can you say GS-4 Daylight?
DM-K
Ottawa
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| tony23
Foreman
Posts:116
Send Message
| | 02/23/2008 9:51 AM |
| David and Peter,
You hit the nail on the head I purchased Jerry Hyde's F7 only to find I could not purchase anything in the States to run behind it I emailed all the dealers (St.Aubins, Trainworld etc.) only to be told they never know when to expect a deliverey of MTH stuff but they did want full payment (yer right).
Why are you guys over there not making anything for the Aster's and Accucraft to pull ,there is a market but please be a better quality than the MTH (crude) plastic looking.
I ended up selling my F7 because of this.
So when I get my S2 am I going to have the same problem if so I'll bail out now 
Tony | | | |
| AsterUK
1st Class Member
Brakeman
Posts:68
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| | 02/23/2008 10:30 AM |
| Tony, I think you are being a little unfair in your remarks. The MTH Caboose is quite nice and can be toned down to loose the plastic look. The AMS Reefers are quite nice too although it pains me to say it!
I have available some J&M Heavywight Pullmans for sale (NYC and Pennsy) they are heavy but built like the proverbial brick outhouse. Contact me off line for these. Also quite a few folks around the area you live have American stock and if we all get together we can make up some pretty good consists. Shame you sold your Jerry Hyde diesel since we could have tested it with some pretty impressive loads.
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